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10k Words | August 2022

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Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. It is almost compulsory to discuss interest rates and inflation so the first charts this time around give us inflation for advanced economies and Australia, via the RBA,  then US yield curve inversion and inflation-adjusted interest rates, courtesy of Bloomberg and Axios. The same sources have served up some charts on the strength of the US job market. Then we get into the tech sector with CB Insights mapping out billion-dollar acquisitions while Equitable Investors compares the dollar amount of stock compensation against operating cash flow for Amazon and Atlassian. The global IPO market is down 74% year-to-date in CY2022 and the Aust

10k Words | July 2022

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  Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. Revenue multiples have returned to pre-2020 levels for high growth software companies, based on Octahedron's index. The dowturn in valuations was accompanied by a 23% year-on-year decline in March quarter VC funding for late-stage and technoology growth funding, crunchbase calculated - although it found seed and angel investment held up better, growing 9% year-on-year. The Information found VC firms buying listed tech stocks, meanwhile consensus data from FactSet shows the tech sector is not expected to have been among the strongest growth areas of the S&P 500 in the June quarter - energy and materials stocks have the most ex

10k Words | June 2022

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Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. Price-to-Earnings multiples have been crunched in the calendar year to-date, as FactSet and strategist Christophe Barraud chart - but that begs the question posed by Sanford Bernstein - does this imply earnings expectations will be cut? Global equity capital markets volumes have dropped more than market indices, Equitable Investors highlights, while there are plenty of companies in need of fresh cash. Below-trend economic growth and above-trend inflation is the widely held consensus view of the economic backdrop from the Bank of America global fund manager survey. Off the back of that, the market is expecting the Fed cash rate to settl

10K Words - May 2022

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Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. The drawdown in tech stocks remains in focus with carts from chrtr and a16z, while MarketWatch highlighted the inside selling that occured in 2021's tech IPOs ("You bought. They sold"). Retail investors who had a great time trading in 2020 and 2021 may have lost all that they gained, Morgan Stanley has estimated. The crypto space hasn't worked for punters either as correlation with tech stocks surges, as the Daily Shot charts, and the "hot" NFT space cools rapidly, as charted by NonFungible. Finally, fund managers surveyed by Bank of America have returned from briefly worrying about the Ukraine situation as

10K Words - April 2022

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Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. Online sales volumes have retreated in absolute numbers and as a share of total sales as the charts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the US Census Bureau show. US government bonds are on track to deliver their worst annual loss, Compound Capital Advisors highlights. Bank of America links the preceeding surge in central bank liquidity with the value of "Big Tech" stocks. A correlation between inflation worries and the relative valuation of small caps is charted by BCA Research. Quantitative Value co-author Tobias Carlisle shows that "unexcellent" stocks have outperformed "excellent" stocks over

10K Words - March 2022

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  Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. The extent of the new "Tech Wreck" is highlighted by Societe Generale with 60%+ of stocks in the index down more than 25%, including 20% down more than 75%. But bonds have not delivered on their promise of safety as Bespoke and The Irrelevant Investor highlight. Back in Australia, Wilsons counts only 47 earnings downgrades in total for FY22 (so far), which is similar to FY21 but well below pre-Covid years. Wilsons also shows an unusually large spread between growth in small and large caps. The correlation of bitcoin with the more speculative parts of the equities market has been mapped courtesy of The Daily Shot. Finally, B

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