10k Words | October 2022

Apparently, Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy.

We are in to the home stretch for CY2022, the December quarter, and can paint a fairly dire picture of how investment and capital markets have faired. Global M&A activity is down 33%, while equity capital raised is down 65% according to dealogic data. Acquisitions of VC-backed businesses have dived in number, as Pitchbook charts. Gavekal shows the drawdown in dollars across equity and debt markets in 2022 dwarfs the GFC. And yet despite the declines, fund managers' equity allocations have been slashed according to both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. In Australia, economists' inflation expectations have inched higher according to Bloomberg, while consumer sentiment has plunged based on the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey. Meanwhile, HFI Research chart's the decline in hydrocarbons in storage in the US in 2022 tracking well below prior years. EIA's own chart tells a similar story relative to the 5-year range.

 

Global M&A in CY2022 year-to-date relative to same period in 2021

Source: dealogic, WSJ


Global Equity Capital Markets activity in CY2022 year-to-date relative to same period in 2021
Source: dealogic, WSJ


Acquisitions in the US of VC-backed businesses
Source: PitchBook


Drawdown in total market capitalisation of US equity & fixed income
Source: Gavekal Research, Bloomberg, Macrobond


Hedge funds and muutal funds slashed equity exposure

Source: Goldman Sachs, ICI (via zerohedge)


BofA Fund Manager Survey shows allocation to equities at all-time low
Source: Bank of America Fund Manager Survey


Survey of Australian economists' inflation expectations 

Source: Bloomberg


ANZ Consumer Sentiment
Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan


US Big 4 Storage ( Crude with Strategic Petroleum Reserve + Gasoline + Distillate + Jet Fuel) 


Source: HFI Research


US crude oil stocks

Source: US Energy Information Administration


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