Equitable Investors

Apparently, Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in ads on the sides of streetcars... The “US equity market performance this year can broadly be characterised as a dash for trash,” Bespoke declared on Feb 3. Our own analysis of ASX micro-to-mids shows a similar trend - CY2022 losers are now the winners, as are stocks on higher multiples. A case for higher cash rates was charted by Charles Schwab even as Moody’s showed inflation is slowing in some countries... Read on at Substack ... ASX Micro-to-Mids - “Financial, Industrial & Technology” (FIT) factor performance in CY2023-to-date Source: Equitable Investors

  If there was a year in investment markets where swearing was justifiable, 2022 would be a great candidate. The FT shows us swearing reached new heights on company conference calls. Maybe swearing in 2023 will find a new peak as the feeling of greater uncertainty remains - just look at the IMF’s plot. Gartner’s estimate of a 28.5% year-on-year decline in global PC sales may cause a few to swear, at least privately... Read in full  here  (at Substack) Bull market in swearing - frequency of swearing on conference calls Source: AlphaSense, Financial Times

Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. This month's chart are largely lifted from an Equitable Investors slide deck. We can't really avoid taking a look at inflation and interest rates - so that is where we start with charts from Bloomberg showing the expectation for a sharp inflation correction in the US in 2023 (and a voew on why, based on Academy Securities' view of inflation drivers). Central bank policy rates remain, in the main, below inflation rates, as @charliebilello tabulates. CY2022 is almost gone and we can look back at capital markets and see sharp declines in the availability of funding - global equity capital raising volumes down 65% and Australas...

Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. There hasn't been a year quite like this one for investment markets - just look at where @darioperkins plots 2022's returns. While we are sticking with that theme, CNBC tallies $US3 trillion in lost market cap from just seven companies in one year. As a valuation check, Amazon is now trading well below its long-term average EV/EBITDA multiple - while Apple remains above its own. With the "M2" measure of money supply in the US plunging the most on record in a six month period, as highlighted by @CharlieBillelo, Morgan Stanley chartered the historical correlation between M2 and inflation; and True Insights looked at the...

Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. We are in to the home stretch for CY2022, the December quarter, and can paint a fairly dire picture of how investment and capital markets have faired. Global M&A activity is down 33%, while equity capital raised is down 65% according to dealogic data. Acquisitions of VC-backed businesses have dived in number, as Pitchbook charts. Gavekal shows the drawdown in dollars across equity and debt markets in 2022 dwarfs the GFC. And yet despite the declines, fund managers' equity allocations have been slashed according to both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. In Australia, economists' inflation expectations have inched higher acc...

Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. Earnings season on the ASX has come to a close with a historically low number of downgrades on the FY22 numbers, as tracked by Wilsons, but more downgrades than upgrades to EPS and dividend guidance for FY23, based on Evans & Partners' numbers. The one year return on Bloomberg's benchmark for the bond market is down 19% over the past 12 months. While the Australian yield curve is sloping upwards, the US yield curve is currently inverted. An inverted yield curve has historically led to some type of "break" in the system, @Marlin_Capital warns. But the inflation data is potentially turning - Yardeni highlights plung...

Apparently , Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy. It is almost compulsory to discuss interest rates and inflation so the first charts this time around give us inflation for advanced economies and Australia, via the RBA,  then US yield curve inversion and inflation-adjusted interest rates, courtesy of Bloomberg and Axios. The same sources have served up some charts on the strength of the US job market. Then we get into the tech sector with CB Insights mapping out billion-dollar acquisitions while Equitable Investors compares the dollar amount of stock compensation against operating cash flow for Amazon and Atlassian. The global IPO market is down 74% year-to-date in CY2022 and the ...