10k Words - March 2020

Apparently, Confucius didn’t say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy.

Who would have thought that the global pandemic that started in China would lead to significant out-performance of Chinese equities against the rest of the world? Bespoke has illustrated that in terms of the China share of global market capitalisation. Analysts are scrambling to cut growth expectations. Goldman Sachs put out its view of various economies' GDP relative to previous US recession periods. BAML's monthly global survey of fund managers showed growth expectations plunging the most ever to a net 49% (23% brave investors forecasting stronger growth, 72% tipping weaker growth). Morningstar has had a crack at estimating the impact of the pandemic on global GDP. Finally, Evans & Partners reviews the history of intra-year declines in the S&P/ASX 200.


China equities as % of world market cap


Source: Bespoke


Goldman Sachs' GDP forecasts for FY2020


Global Fund Manager growth expectations 

Source: BAML March 2020 Fund Manager survey


Morningstar's estimate of COVID-19 impact on world GDP


Source: Morningstar


History of intra-year declines for the S&P/ASX 200


Source: Evans & Partners

Popular posts from this blog

10k Words | August 2022

Feel the Cash Burn as Profit Season Closes (or "In memory of Pocketmail")

Where was the EPS uplift?

Disclaimer

Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions.Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information.

This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary.

Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components.Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog.