10k Words | December 2022

Apparently, Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy.

This month's chart are largely lifted from an Equitable Investors slide deck. We can't really avoid taking a look at inflation and interest rates - so that is where we start with charts from Bloomberg showing the expectation for a sharp inflation correction in the US in 2023 (and a voew on why, based on Academy Securities' view of inflation drivers). Central bank policy rates remain, in the main, below inflation rates, as @charliebilello tabulates. CY2022 is almost gone and we can look back at capital markets and see sharp declines in the availability of funding - global equity capital raising volumes down 65% and Australasian down 54% year-on-year, using dealogic data. High yield debt issuance plunged even further. Crunchbase reckons that in global venture capital markets, seed funding dropped by a third, early stage halved and late stage is down by 80% compared to November 2021. Finally, Cliffwater shows us how private equity has outperformed since 2000 (in a period that coincides with historically low interest rates) and Refinitiv's Venture Capital Index gives us an idea of how alternative assets may have faired in 2022 if they were priced daily.

Implied inflation (starts Dec 9)

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation Drivers (estimated)

Source: Bloomberg, Academy Securities

Global Central Bank Policy Rates (as of Dec 8, 2022)

Source: Compound/@charliebilello

Global Equity Capital Market Volumes ($USb)

Source: WSJ, Dealogic

Australian Equity Capital Market Volumes ($USb)

Source: WSJ, Dealogic

High Yield Debt Capital Markets

Source: WSJ, Dealogic

Global Venture Capital Funding

Source: Crunchbase

Composite Private Equity Performance (US State Pensions)

Source: Cliffwater

Refinitiv Venture Capital Index Over 5 Years

Source: FT

Popular posts from this blog

Feel the Cash Burn as Profit Season Closes (or "In memory of Pocketmail")

Where was the EPS uplift?

New commentary up on livewire: An overlooked small cap agri stock


Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions.Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information.

This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary.

Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components.Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog.