10k Words | December 2022

Apparently, Confucius did not say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy.

This month's chart are largely lifted from an Equitable Investors slide deck. We can't really avoid taking a look at inflation and interest rates - so that is where we start with charts from Bloomberg showing the expectation for a sharp inflation correction in the US in 2023 (and a voew on why, based on Academy Securities' view of inflation drivers). Central bank policy rates remain, in the main, below inflation rates, as @charliebilello tabulates. CY2022 is almost gone and we can look back at capital markets and see sharp declines in the availability of funding - global equity capital raising volumes down 65% and Australasian down 54% year-on-year, using dealogic data. High yield debt issuance plunged even further. Crunchbase reckons that in global venture capital markets, seed funding dropped by a third, early stage halved and late stage is down by 80% compared to November 2021. Finally, Cliffwater shows us how private equity has outperformed since 2000 (in a period that coincides with historically low interest rates) and Refinitiv's Venture Capital Index gives us an idea of how alternative assets may have faired in 2022 if they were priced daily.


Implied inflation (starts Dec 9)

Source: Bloomberg


Inflation Drivers (estimated)

Source: Bloomberg, Academy Securities


Global Central Bank Policy Rates (as of Dec 8, 2022)

Source: Compound/@charliebilello


Global Equity Capital Market Volumes ($USb)

Source: WSJ, Dealogic


Australian Equity Capital Market Volumes ($USb)

Source: WSJ, Dealogic


High Yield Debt Capital Markets

Source: WSJ, Dealogic


Global Venture Capital Funding

Source: Crunchbase


Composite Private Equity Performance (US State Pensions)

Source: Cliffwater


Refinitiv Venture Capital Index Over 5 Years

Source: FT

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