10k Words - March 2020

Apparently, Confucius didn’t say “One Picture is Worth Ten Thousand Words” after all. It was an advertisement in a 1920s trade journal for the use of images in advertisements on the sides of streetcars. Even without the credibility of Confucius behind it, we think this saying has merit. Each month we share a few charts or images we consider noteworthy.

Who would have thought that the global pandemic that started in China would lead to significant out-performance of Chinese equities against the rest of the world? Bespoke has illustrated that in terms of the China share of global market capitalisation. Analysts are scrambling to cut growth expectations. Goldman Sachs put out its view of various economies' GDP relative to previous US recession periods. BAML's monthly global survey of fund managers showed growth expectations plunging the most ever to a net 49% (23% brave investors forecasting stronger growth, 72% tipping weaker growth). Morningstar has had a crack at estimating the impact of the pandemic on global GDP. Finally, Evans & Partners reviews the history of intra-year declines in the S&P/ASX 200.

China equities as % of world market cap

Source: Bespoke

Goldman Sachs' GDP forecasts for FY2020

Global Fund Manager growth expectations 

Source: BAML March 2020 Fund Manager survey

Morningstar's estimate of COVID-19 impact on world GDP

Source: Morningstar

History of intra-year declines for the S&P/ASX 200

Source: Evans & Partners

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